A Few Words on Egypt

Well unless you've been living under a rock you are aware that the dictator in Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, has been removed from power in Egypt. Surprisingly he has been removed all due to peaceful protests that took place continually for 18 days. So far it is everyones hope that this leads to a transition towards a representative democracy in Egypt, the country with the worlds largest arab population and one of the best militarily.

Still some concerns remain. What role will the muslim brotherhood play in Egypt's future? They do not represent the majority in Egypt, but among opposition parties they are the best organized.

Will they, MB, attempt to usurp power turning the government into another Iran and likely sparking a war with Israel? While this is a possibility it would appear unlikely at this time. The muslim brotherhood would need to either develop military powers in a hurry, or gain sympathizers in the military, or both. Neither is likely though, the military junta that has taken power has stated that it will respect the treaty the country has with Israel. It does this in no small reason due to the foreign aid that the country receives from the US, at last count around 1.8 billion a year most of which goes towards military spending.

Right now the military has dissolved Parliament and states that it will run the country for the next six months until elections are held. Will they hold to this deadline and allow a transfer of power to a civilian government or will they seek to rule the country longer? Now this is the million dollar question. Before elections are held the country needs to draft a new constitution which will be put up for a vote. This is no small matter and if the political parties in Egypt can't do this than there won't be any elections in September. How the populace reacts here is anyones guess but should the constitution process drag out this peaceful process could become violent in a hurry which again would likely lead to a military crackdown and the military running the country for a longer period of time.

If they do get a constitution passed in time for elections in September I would expect the military to allow them to be held without interference. So long as there is little violence and the newly elected government respects the treaty with Israel and does not interfere with military spending I don't see many objections being raised.

What does new civilian leadership mean for Egyptian/Israeli relationships? That depends on the government. Best case scenario is a very secular leadership is elected and relations carry on much like they did before. Worst case scenario is a more fundamental islamic view of government takes place and we have the making for a very bloody war, maybe not now but within the next 5 years.

So that's my take on it so far. A lot of unknowns, but so far the process has been peaceful. Let us all hope that this continues.

-Zach