Foreign Policy Debate - Does It Matter?

It did in the 2004 election when Iraq was the main concern for the country and hung heavy around the neck of President Bush. Entering his second term many figured it would remain the top issue as the global war on terrorism dragged on eventually leading to President Bush's decision to send in surge troops to Iraq.

Of course the economy then collapsed and this dominated the 2008 election. Either way I believe Obama would have won the election, the circumstances around it just changed in the final months.

Today the economy remains easily the biggest issue for most voters which leads me to ask how much tonites debate will have on the overall election.

It matters in the sense that Obama is sure to try and paint Romney as a return to the Bush foreign policy which would lead to war, most likely one against Iran or possibly one against Syria. If Obama is successful in this matter it could drive away key votes in swing states. People will remain concerned about the economy, but there is no desire for another war. 

For my own consideration, Obama has improved in his foreign policy handling IMHO.  Drone strikes are up and we are working with allies to combat terrorism as in the current cases of Yemen, Somalia, and Libya.  I don't desire to see a change in this issue, but for me the issue returns again to the economy and so I'm going with Romney no matter what.

Romney will need to defend against this, he'll likley make statements such as the need to work with allies to applie pressures on states such as Iran. This will be easily defended as Obama points out this as what his administration's policy.

Romney will then move on to generalities about the need to project a strong American, and will stay away from specifics on how he would do this. Instead he will just point out Obama's weaknesses of projecting a diminished America.

All and all I expect tonites debate to end in a wash and have no real dent on the election. It will come and go and afterwards both sides will claim victory. After this Romney will move on with ads and campaigns highlighting his economic plan. Obama will do the same, but will go negative against Romney as well.

And it all ends on November 6th.

That's my take.

How bout y'all?

-Zach

So.... about the upcoming VP Debate

Four years ago after Sarah Palin became the VP choice there was a media firestorm which lasted throughout the election cycle.  It added a huge pressure atmosphere as Palin and then Senator Joe Biden showed up for the debate.  Adding to the debate were gaffs and supposed guffaws made by Palin during interviews with the media.  All eyes were on her.  As the debate concluded Biden came across looking poised, gave his responses in a clear and concise manor, contrasting Palin who while she did not perform poorly, did not perform as well as Biden, IMHO.

Four years later Biden finds himself entering another VP debate which will be closely watched, but this time partially because of the many gaffs Joe has had himself over the past few months.  Addressing a grouping of largely black supporters in Virginia, Biden told the crowd "They (Republicans) want to unchain Wall Street... They're gonna put y'all back in chains."  Just a few weeks ago Biden had another gaff when he railed against the current Republican ticket stating they would raise taxes on a middle class which has been "buried for the last four years."

Whether or not his "chains" comments were meant to be solely about Wall Street, the audience in which he made the comments made it a very poor choice of words.  Similarly his "buried" comment which may have been echoed by Mitt Romney purposely in the last debate, have hurt the Obama campaign.

And so, entering the VP debate on Wednesday, people will be watching and wondering if Biden is going to step on his toes again and offer a devastating gaff which Republicans will use to their advantage.  The person he'll be facing will not be Sarah Palin with her "folksy" way of talking the media hated last time.  His opponent this time around will be Paul Ryan, a very good public speaker who has endeared himself to independents in Wisconsin, and given this public platform, will likely endear himself to more independents nationwide.

 

-Zach